Take Happy Valley-Goose Bay in Newfoundland and Dublin. Both sit at 53°N latitude, so they’re getting identical winter sunlight. But January temperatures? Happy Valley-Goose Bay averages -22°C. Dublin barely freezes at 2°C. That’s a 24-degree gap between two places that should theoretically have similar winters.

The numbers for other latitudes tell the same story. Quebec’s Sept-Îles freezes at -20°C while Plymouth sits at 4°C. Drop down to 48°N and Rimouski is at -15°C, Brest at 4°C. Even New York, the mildest of the North American cities here, only reaches -3°C. Porto is at 6°C.

All the European cities on the map above stay above freezing. All the North American ones are well below zero.

The Gulf Stream creates this gap. Caribbean water flows northeast and reaches Ireland, Britain, and France still warm enough to change their entire climate. Nothing comparable exists for North America. Arctic air moves south and there’s no warm ocean current moderating anything.

The Gulf Stream itself may be weakening based on climate data from the past few decades. These temperature patterns we map today might not be permanent.

Related Reading:

• Comparing the latitude of Europe and America
• The Hidden Parallels: Northern and Southern Hemisphere Cities at Equal Latitudes
• Find cities with a similar climate

The post The Gulf Stream Keeps Dublin 24°C Warmer Than Canadian Cities at the Same Latitude appeared first on Vivid Maps.

This map shows in dark blue where snow falls below 500 meters (1,640 feet). Teal marks places that only see snow above 500 meters. Pale lime means you need to climb above 2,000 meters (6,562 feet) to find snow. Countries in gray don’t get regular annual snowfall.

The dark blue category covers the obvious winter destinations: Russia, Canada, the United States, and central and eastern Asia. Snow reaches these low-elevation areas every winter.

Teal gets more surprising. Mexico has snow. So does Brazil. Australia, India, and South Africa, too. In Australia, the Snowy Mountains actually earn their name each winter. Northern India’s Himalayan regions turn white annually. South Africa’s Drakensberg range sees snow periodically. These countries can experience tropical heat in the valleys while their peaks remain frozen, as temperatures typically drop by about 6.5°C for every 1,000 meters of elevation.

Pale lime shows the most extreme cases. The Andes in Colombia and Peru. Kenya and Ethiopia in East Africa. Mount Kenya sits almost on the equator but has permanent snow and glaciers at its summit.

The Snow Champions

Chile’s southern Andes win the global competition with approximately 2,000 inches (51 meters) annually. Enough snow to bury a house. The Pacific sends moisture straight into those massive peaks, and it accumulates relentlessly.

For cities, Aomori in northern Japan leads at around 312 inches (8 meters) per year, with Sapporo close behind. The Japanese totals come from a different process than Chile’s. Siberian cold air travels across the Sea of Japan, absorbs moisture from the warmer water, and then releases it all as snow when it hits the coast.

Interested in more weather patterns? Check out The ‘White Christmas Map’ Reveals Every Country’s Chance of Snow on Christmas Day and The Coldest Temperatures Around The World Mapped.

The post Countries with Regular Annual Snowfall Mapped appeared first on Vivid Maps.

Winter lows there average 3°C or 37.4°F. A Reddit user named seashellvalley760 put together a map comparing Victoria’s temperatures to everywhere else in America. Blue on the map indicates areas colder than Victoria. Yellow shows warmer spots.

Look at how much blue covers the map. Most of the country freezes harder than this Canadian city.

The yellow zones are limited. You’ll see them along the Gulf Coast through Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and into South Carolina. A handful of North Carolina counties between Albemarle Sound and Pamlico Sound show yellow. Southern Arizona has some. One county in Nevada. Portions of California’s coast. Parts of Oregon’s coastline. Just Jefferson County in Washington State.

That’s about all the yellow you’ll find.

Victoria’s location explains everything. The Pacific Ocean wraps around three sides of the city. Mountains to the east keep cold continental air from reaching it. According to the Köppen system, this creates a Csb climate. Warm-summer Mediterranean. San Francisco has it too.

Mediterranean climate. In Canada.

Summers stay dry. Winters get the rain. Snow? Rare. Maybe 15 frost days a year.

Here’s the actual numbers from Environment Canada.

February gets the coldest. Even then, lows only hit 3°C or 37°F. Above freezing.

How far north you are doesn’t tell you much. Ocean currents count for more. Mountains blocking wind help too. Proximity to water helps. Victoria has all three going for it.

People grow palm trees in Victoria. Roses bloom there in February.

Canada frozen solid? Not in Victoria.

The post Most of America Has Colder Winters Than Canada’s Warmest City appeared first on Vivid Maps.

The projections show 82% of the country getting wetter by mid-century. These come from CMIP6 climate models that researchers have scaled down to work regionally. Look at the eastern states, the Great Lakes, or the northern plains—rainfall is going up across the board. This isn’t just theoretical either. The Midwest’s biggest storms already deliver 42% more precipitation now than they did in 1958, while the Northeast has seen 55% increases.

Several regions go the opposite direction, though. The map shows less rainfall coming for western Arkansas-White-Red basin, Texas Gulf Coast, Rio Grande basin, Lower Colorado, and Southern California stretching from LA to San Diego. Southern Florida gets drier too. Not great news for places already watching their water supplies.

The second map zooms in on storm frequency and intensity. Two regions really stand out here—the Pacific Northwest and Mississippi Delta. Both will see what climate scientists call frequent high-intensity storms.

Projections show the Pacific Northwest getting 13% more days with over an inch of rain (comparing 2041-2070 to 1971-2000).

The Mississippi Delta has multiple problems piling up at once. Storm intensity is increasing, sure, but sea level also keeps rising faster there (about one inch every seven years) because the land is sinking. Then you add more frequent and stronger tropical cyclones. Mississippi’s 100-year floodplain currently spans 200 square miles (518 sq km), but projections put that at 300 square miles (777 sq km) by 2050.

Atmospheric rivers are already causing severe disruptions in the Pacific Northwest. These massive bands of tropical moisture travel northward and unleash astonishing amounts of rain when they reach the coast. Disturbingly, they are not only becoming more powerful but also occurring with increasing frequency.

The year 2050 is not some far-off science fiction scenario; it is just 25 years away. Anyone under 50 today will undoubtedly witness these dramatic changes firsthand.

The post Where Will It Rain More (and Less) by 2050? appeared first on Vivid Maps.

What creates such extremes? The Himalayas run for thousands of kilometers, acting as this massive wall basically. Air coming from the south hits it and releases all its rain on India’s side, leaving Tibet really dry. Distance from the sea is key too – coastal spots stay milder with ocean moisture, while inland areas get extreme temps. Monsoons change course every season, dumping tons of rain in summer and leaving vast areas dry come winter. And yeah, Asia spans from nearly the Arctic Circle right down to the equator.

But these setups are changing now. I tracked how Asian climate zones have moved since 1930 and where they’re going by 2099 using data from Beck et al. (2023) at 1-kilometer resolution. The changes vary by region but add up to major reorganization. For climate codes and what they mean, check my earlier post on global classifications.

Today’s map shows Asia’s extremes. Up along the northern coast of Siberia, you’ve got Arctic tundra (ET), and the islands have polar ice (EF). Then there are these huge stretches in Siberia and northern Russia that are subarctic (stuff like Dfc, Dfd, Dwc, Dwd). Hot deserts (BWh) and cold deserts (BWk) fill Arabia, and chunks of central Asia. Tibet and Mongolia have cold desert and steppe (BWk, BSk). Southeast Asia and southern India hold tropical rainforest (Af). Those rainforests are bordered by savanna (Aw) and monsoon (Am) zones. Over in eastern China and bits of India, it’s humid subtropical (Cfa, Cwa). Then up north in China, along with Korea and Japan, things turn to humid continental (Dfa, Dfb, Dwa, Dwb).

A Century of Movement

Climate zones have been shifting for decades.

Take a look at this slider comparing the early 1900s (1901–1930) to right now (1991–2020).

You can see the Arctic tundra pulling away from Siberia’s coast.

Subarctic zones have retreated southward, replaced by warmer classifications moving north. Central Asian deserts have shifted their boundaries. The Tibetan Plateau has warmed, pushing some cold zones higher up. Tropical zones in Southeast Asia have seen their boundaries shift. Monsoon patterns have changed in timing and strength in some areas, affecting where climate boundaries fall.

Projections to Century’s End

For the future, I used the SSP2-4.5 scenario where emissions plateau by mid-to-late century.

Now versus the late 21st century (ssp2-4.5).

By 2099, changes come from multiple directions. Arctic tundra shrinks dramatically along Siberia’s coast, squeezed back to the northernmost strips and islands. Subarctic zones contract substantially, replaced by continental and temperate zones moving north. Desert zones in Arabia and central Asia expand in some areas. The Tibetan Plateau keeps warming, pushing cold zones to higher elevations where some just run out of mountain. Tropical zones show complex changes with some expansion and some areas drying out. Humid subtropical zones expand north in China. Continental zones in northern China and Mongolia shift toward warmer classifications.

From 1930 to 2099.

Over this span, the reorganization is huge. Siberia’s coldest zones pull back hundreds of kilometers northward. What was tundra becomes subarctic. What was subarctic becomes continental. Central Asia sees complex changes in where deserts and steppes meet. The Himalayas and Tibet lose their coldest high-altitude zones as temperatures rise. Southeast Asia’s tropical climates shift along the edges where they meet other zones. East Asia’s subtropical zones expand northward into areas that were continental.

Billions of folks rely on these climate setups. Glaciers in the Himalayas supply water to major rivers such as the Ganges, Indus, Brahmaputra, Yangtze, and Mekong, which flow across nations including India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, China, and parts of Southeast Asia. Unfortunately, these glaciers are shrinking much faster now. Regions suitable for rice farming are relocating due to evolving temps and precipitation. In Siberia, permafrost is defrosting, releasing stored ancient carbon while making the soil unstable, leading to crumbling roads, pipelines, and structures. And deserts are slowly taking over arable land.

Monsoons might hit at unexpected times or dump unusual amounts, screwing up age-old farming routines. And species? They’re struggling to adapt in time.

I also threw together some maps for 1931–1960 and 2041–2070. Full sequence here:

The post How Asia’s Climates Are Shifting: Köppen-Geiger Maps from 1930 to 2099 appeared first on Vivid Maps.

The Gulf Stream brings warm water northeast from the tropics, so London is milder than Calgary even though it is farther north. Mountains like the Alps and Pyrenees block weather systems, creating wet slopes on one side and dry rain shadows on the other. Your distance from the Atlantic or Mediterranean determines whether you get maritime moderation or the wild temperature swings of a continental interior. Latitude controls how much sunlight reaches you. Latitude affects how much sunlight you get.

These patterns aren’t staying put. I made maps showing how European climate zones have moved since 1930 and where they’re going by 2099. The data comes from Beck et al. (2023) at 1-kilometer resolution. A general northward migration is the current trend. For climate codes and their meanings, check my earlier post on global classifications.

Today’s map shows what most Europeans recognize. According to the map, Portugal’s coast is surrounded by a Mediterranean climate (Csa, Csb). Oceanic climate (Cfb) blankets Britain, Ireland, France, Western Germany, and the Atlantic-facing coasts. Northern Italy and parts of the Balkans get humid subtropical (Cfa). Central and eastern Europe from East Germany through Poland and into Russia have humid continental (Dfb). Northern Scandinavia and Russia have subarctic (Df). The Alps, Pyrenees, and Carpathians hold cool mountain climates (Cfc) with tundra patches (ET) on the highest summits. Spain’s interior plateau and areas around the Black Sea and Caspian Sea show semi-arid zones (BSk).

A Century of Northward Movement

Climate zones have been on the move for decades.

The early 1900s (1901–1930) versus today (1991–2020).

The Mediterranean climate has shifted north into southern France and expanded in the Balkans. Oceanic zones have moved into areas that used to be more continental. Humid continental climates have shifted northeast. Subarctic zones in Scandinavia have pulled back northward. Mountain tundra has retreated to higher elevations.

Projections to Century’s End

For the future, I used the most possible SSP2-4.5 scenario where emissions plateau by mid-to-late century.

Today versus late this century (SSP2-4.5).

By 2099, the movement speeds up. The Mediterranean climate extends deep into southern France and spreads into more of the Balkans and Spain’s interior. Humid subtropical zones expand northward from Italy and the Balkans toward Poland. Continental climates shift further northeast, with cooler variants pushed into areas that are currently subarctic. Subarctic zones retreat dramatically in Scandinavia and Russia. Mountain tundra disappears from all but the highest Alpine peaks. The UK and Ireland see their oceanic climate become warmer. Some southern European areas cross from Mediterranean into semi-arid steppe.

From 1930 through 2099.

Over this timespan, climate zones migrate hundreds of kilometers northward. In 1930, Mediterranean stayed on the Mediterranean. By 2099, it’s in southern France. What was oceanic becomes Mediterranean. What was continental becomes oceanic. What was subarctic becomes continental. Some areas that were Mediterranean become semi-arid as temperatures rise and precipitation patterns shift.

The coldest zones contract toward the Arctic coast or disappear. This changes agriculture, water supplies, forests, and what kinds of buildings you need. Wine regions migrate north. Forests adapted to cooler conditions struggle with heat. Rivers change when they flood. Buildings designed for one climate face another. Species that need specific conditions either lose habitat or expand their ranges.

I made maps for 1931–1960 and 2041–2070 too. The full sequence:

Data and Methods: Maps use the 1 km Köppen-Geiger dataset from Beck, H.E., et al. (2023), “High-resolution (1 km) Köppen-Geiger maps for 1901–2099 based on constrained CMIP6 projections,” Scientific Data 10, 724 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-023-02549-6).

The post Europe’s Climate Zones Are Shifting North: Köppen-Geiger Maps from 1930 to 2099 appeared first on Vivid Maps.

But elevation and rain shadows create exceptions. The mountains have cool-summer oceanic climate (Cfc). South Island’s Southern Alps hold patches of subarctic climate (Dfc) and even tundra (ET) on the highest peaks. Around Canterbury and into Central Otago on South Island, the mountains block enough rain to create New Zealand’s only dry zone: cold steppe (BSk). Parts of inland South Island get cold enough for humid continental climate (Dfb).

These cooler and drier zones are changing. I made maps tracking how New Zealand’s climate zones have moved since 1930 and where they’re going by 2099, using high-resolution Köppen-Geiger data from Beck et al. (2023) at 1-kilometer resolution (for climate codes and their meanings, see my earlier post on global classifications).

Today’s map shows oceanic climate (Cfb in green) covering most of both islands. This is the mild, damp climate New Zealand is known for. In the mountains, you find cool-summer oceanic (Cfc) where elevation keeps temperatures lower. The Southern Alps on South Island hold small areas of subarctic (Dfc) and tiny patches of tundra (ET) on the highest peaks. Central Otago shows the country’s only semi-arid zone: cold steppe (BSk) where the mountains create a rain shadow. Parts of inland South Island have humid continental climate (Dfb) with colder winters than the coast.

Changes Since 1930

Over the past century, the cooler and drier zones have contracted.

Comparing the early 1900s (1901–1930) with modern times (1991–2020).

Since 1930, the cold steppe (BSk) in Otago has expanded and become more pronounced. But the cool climates have shrunk. Cool-summer oceanic (Cfc) has contracted in the mountains. Humid continental (Dfb) zones have gotten smaller. Subarctic (Dfc) areas have pulled back to higher elevations.

Projections to Century’s End

For future projections, I used a more realistic SSP2-4.5 scenario.

Today’s climate versus projections for the late 21st century (ssp2-4.5).

By 2099, the changes become more dramatic. Cool-summer oceanic climate (Cfc) disappears from North Island entirely. On South Island, Cfc, Dfc, and ET all shrink substantially. Even the cold steppe (BSk) in Otago contracts. The tundra patches on the highest peaks would vanish or become extremely restricted. The subarctic zones would retreat to only the very highest remaining areas.

The full span: 1930 to 2099.

From 1930 to 2099, New Zealand loses much of its climate diversity. The cool mountain climates that create distinct ecosystems and support unique species contract dramatically.

New Zealand’s mountain ecosystems depend on these cool climates. Alpine plants adapted to cold conditions lose habitat as zones move upslope. Snow cover decreases, affecting rivers fed by mountain snowmelt. Glaciers continue retreating.

Data and Methods: All maps use the 1 km Köppen-Geiger dataset from Beck, H.E., et al. (2023), “High-resolution (1 km) Köppen-Geiger maps for 1901–2099 based on constrained CMIP6 projections,” Scientific Data 10, 724. Available at: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-023-02549-6.

The post New Zealand’s Shrinking Cool Climates: Köppen-Geiger Maps from 1930 to 2099 appeared first on Vivid Maps.

The population hugs the coasts. Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane line the east coast where oceanic and humid subtropical climates (Cfb, Cfa) deliver enough rain to support cities. Travel north and you’ll reach the tropics, featuring savannah (Aw) and rainforest (Af) throughout the Top End, where the monsoon dictates the seasons. Perth sits on the west coast in Mediterranean climate (Csa), sharing that weather pattern with California, the Mediterranean Basin, central Chile, South Africa’s Cape, and southwestern Australia. Tasmania gets oceanic climate (Cfb) with cool, damp conditions year-round, its mountains even cooler (Cfc). A narrow band of cold desert (BWk) runs along the southern coast, squeezed between interior desert and ocean.

I tracked how these zones have moved since 1930 and where they’re going by 2099 using data from Beck et al. (2023) at 1-kilometer resolution. The pattern: deserts spreading (for climate codes and their meanings, check my earlier post on global classifications).

Today’s map shows what you’d expect from the driest continent. Hot desert (BWh) dominates the interior in deep red. Hot steppe (BSh) in orange surrounds it. These two zones cover about two-thirds of the landmass.

The east coast concentrates Australia’s population. Sydney gets humid subtropical climate (Cfa): rain every month, hot summers. Northerly, between Brisbane and Townsville, you find patches of dry-winter subtropical (Cwa). Keep going to the north, and proper tropical climates take over: rainforest (Af), where rainfall remains heavy, and savannah (Aw), where the year is sharply divided between wet and dry seasons. Melbourne and the southeast have oceanic climate (Cfb) with moderate temperatures and rain spread throughout the year.

The south coast shows a thin strip of cold desert (BWk) trapped between the interior desert and the Southern Ocean. Perth has Mediterranean climate (Csa): summers dry out, winters get wet. South of Perth, that becomes warm-summer Mediterranean (Csb). Tasmania has oceanic climate (Cfb), with its central mountains cool enough to cross into Cfc.

A Century of Desert Expansion

The past century shows a consistent pattern: dry zones spreading.

Comparing the early 1900s (1901–1930) with modern times (1991–2020).

By the 1960s, hot desert (BWh) was already expanding, particularly toward the west coast. Around Perth, the Mediterranean and steppe zones (Csa, Csb, Bsk, Bsh) were getting pushed together as the desert grew outward. Hot steppe (Bsh) was pulling back slightly from the east coast.

By 1990, both BWh and BSk had grown larger. Bsh was advancing toward the east coast. BWh was pushing south, compressing the cold desert (BWk) belt along the southern coast into a narrower strip.

Today, hot steppe (BSh) has expanded both toward the northeast coast and in the opposite direction inland, taking over areas that used to be hot desert. The hot desert itself has moved along the southwestern coast, putting more pressure on the Mediterranean and steppe zones around Perth. The cold desert (BWk) running along the south coast has thinned noticeably.

Projections to Century’s End

For future projections, I used the most likely ssp2-4.5 scenario where emissions plateau by mid-to-late century.

Today’s climate versus projections for the late 21st century (ssp2-4.5).

By the 2070s, hot desert (BWh) and hot steppe (Bsh) keep growing. The cold desert (BWk) along the southern coast is disappearing.

By 2099, the expansion accelerates. Hot desert and hot steppe push closer to the east coast where Sydney, Brisbane, and other major cities are located. They also encroach further on Perth’s Mediterranean climate zone along the west coast. The comfortable, habitable climate zones that support most of Australia’s population are getting compressed toward the coasts.

The full span: 1930 to 2099.

Over this timespan, interior deserts advance hundreds of kilometers outward. The expansion comes from multiple directions: pushing toward the east coast, toward the west coast, and south. Steppe zones advance toward the population centers on the east coast.

Major Australian cities are situated on the coasts because these areas receive adequate rainfall and experience moderate temperatures. When desert and steppe zones creep coastward, the consequences multiply. Water gets scarcer. Farmland becomes more marginal. Heat waves intensify. Fire seasons lengthen. The livable zones contract.

I also created maps for climate normals 1931–1960 and 2041–2070 as well. Here’s the full sequence:

The post Australia’s Expanding Deserts: Climate Maps from 1930 to 2099 appeared first on Vivid Maps.

But head into the mountains and things change. The Pennines running down northern England get cool enough to qualify as Cfc (cool-summer oceanic). The Scottish Highlands go further: the Grampians have spots of Dfd (very cold winter continental) and even tiny patches of ET (tundra) on the highest summits. These are the only genuinely harsh climates in the British Isles (For the climate codes and what they mean, check my earlier post on global climate zones.).

At least for now. I created maps showing how these climate zones have changed since 1930 and where they’re projected to go by 2099, using high-resolution Köppen-Geiger data from Beck et al. (2023) at 1-kilometer resolution.

Today’s map shows what you’d expect: green across almost everything. That’s Cfb, the oceanic climate. Ireland is entirely Cfb, as it has been and will remain through the entire span of these projections. The maritime influence is too strong for anything else.

Britain shows the same pattern across most of its area. But zoom into the uplands and exceptions appear. The Pennines display Cfc on their highest ground. Head north to Scotland, and the Grampian Mountains hold small areas of Dfd and even tinier patches of ET. Elevation creates these zones. Walk up a Scottish mountain and you can pass through multiple climate types in a single afternoon. The highest peaks stay cold enough that only tundra plants can survive there.

Changes Since 1930

Even in the relatively stable climate of the British Isles, a century of warming shows up.

Early 20th century climate (1901–1930) versus modern climate (1991–2020).

The changes are subtle but measurable. The coldest zones in the Scottish Highlands have contracted. Areas that were Dfd or ET in 1930 have warmed enough to reclassify. The Pennines show similar but smaller changes. Across the lowlands, the shifts are minimal because the maritime influence dampens temperature swings. Ireland remains entirely Cfb.

Projections to Century’s End

For future projections, I used the ssp2-4.5 scenario where emissions plateau by mid-to-late century.

Current climate versus late-century projections (after 2077, ssp2-4.5).

By the 2070s, the Pennines lose their Cfc zones entirely. The whole range becomes Cfb. What counted as cool-summer oceanic crosses into warm-summer oceanic.

The Scottish Highlands change more dramatically. By the 2070s, the tundra patches (ET) disappear completely. The Grampians hold onto Dfd zones but lose their coldest characteristics. The highest peaks in the British Isles would no longer experience the extreme cold that defines their current ecology.

From 1930 through 2099.

Over the full timespan, you watch the coldest zones retreat upslope and then vanish. In 1930, Scottish mountains held multiple climate zones stacked by elevation. By 2099, that diversity collapses.

Alpine and tundra plants that currently survive on Scottish summits are adapted to cold that will no longer exist. Species like mountain hare, ptarmigan, and dotterel depend on those conditions. Snow patches that persist through summer would melt earlier or disappear entirely. The mountains would look and function differently than they do now.

I also made maps for 1931–1960 and 2041–2070. The full animation:

British Isles climate zones from 1931–1960 through 2041–2070.

The post Climate Zones of the British Isles appeared first on Vivid Maps.

I used the high-resolution Köppen-Geiger dataset from Beck et al. (2023), which covers 1901 through 2099 at 1-kilometer resolution, to visualize Canada’s climate zones. (My previous post on global climate zones includes the full table explaining what each climate code means, if you want the details.)

On the map above, the high Arctic islands appear in gray: ice caps (EF) and tundra (ET). Below that sits an enormous belt of subarctic (Dfc) and hemiboreal (Dfb) climates covering most of Canada’s forested area from Yukon to Labrador.

The southern part of the country shows more variety. The Great Lakes region and southern Quebec range from Dfb to Dfa in the warmest areas. British Columbia’s coast stays mild year-round thanks to the influence of the Pacific (Cfb). Interior valleys in Alberta hold some of Canada’s only semi-arid pockets (BSk), found in rain shadows.

Changes Since 1930

Over the past century, Canada’s climate zones have moved north.

Early 20th century climate (1901–1930) versus modern climate (1991–2020).

Tundra has pulled back from the mainland. Areas that were treeless a century ago now support scattered spruce. The tree line has crept northward in many places, though not uniformly. Subarctic zones have shifted too. Parts of northern Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Ontario that were firmly subarctic a hundred years ago now edge into warmer classifications.

Projections to Century’s End

For future projections, I used the SSP2-4.5 scenario (the most likely scenario), in which emissions rise until mid-century and then level off.

Current climate versus late-century projections (after 2077, ssp2-4.5).

By the late 21st century, changes become dramatic. The subarctic zone moves hundreds of kilometers north. reaches the High Arctic islands.

The tree line advances north. Permafrost thaws across huge areas. Hudson Bay’s ice-free season lengthens. Southern Canada warms considerably. The Great Lakes and St. Lawrence regions would see longer summers and less severe winters.

From 1930 to the end of the 21st century.

From 1930 to 2099, zones travel substantial distances. What’s tundra in 1930 becomes subarctic forest by 2099. What’s subarctic in 1930 becomes continental (hemiboreal) by 2099.

I also created maps for 1931–1960 and 2041–2070. The full animation shows the progression:

Data and Methods: All maps use the 1 km Köppen-Geiger dataset from Beck, H.E., et al. (2023), “High-resolution (1 km) Köppen-Geiger maps for 1901–2099 based on constrained CMIP6 projections.

The post Canada’s Shifting Climate Zones: Köppen-Geiger Maps from 1930 to 2099 appeared first on Vivid Maps.