Amish and Mormon Populations by 2100

August 20, 2023 Alex

The Amish reject electricity, automobiles, and most technology. You’ll find them farming with horses, traveling by buggy, and living in tight-knit agricultural communities. Pennsylvania has about 87,000 Amish residents, with large populations also in Ohio and Indiana. Across North America, roughly 400,910 people live this lifestyle.

Mormons—members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints—embrace modern life completely. They use smartphones, attend universities, and work in every profession. Utah has 2.2 million Mormon residents, about 68% of the state. Idaho adds another 474,000.

A map below projects how these populations might look in 2100.

Amish families have 5-7 kids on average. About 85% stay Amish after growing up. Do that math over several generations and you get exponential growth. Their numbers double every 20 years or so. Back in 2000, there were 177,910 Amish people. Now it’s over 400,000—up 125% in 24 years.

When Amish families need more land, they move. Pennsylvania got too pricey, so they went elsewhere. Last year they started 46 new communities. Since 2000, Amish settlements popped up in Colorado, Nebraska, New Mexico, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming. Minnesota saw its Amish population jump 230% in 20 years. New York went from 4,505 Amish to over 21,000.

Mormon families are bigger than average too—2.8 children versus 2.06 nationally. But the percentage of Americans who call themselves Mormon has actually decreased. It went from 1.8% in 2007 down to 1.2% by 2022. In 2023, Mormon membership in the U.S. grew 0.95%, which barely beats regular population growth.

Mormons aren’t looking for farmland. They move where jobs are. Arizona, Nevada, California, Oregon—these states are seeing more Mormon residents. But Utah and Idaho remain the core.

By 2100, projections put the Amish population around 3.5 million, nearly 1% of all Americans. The map shows them across the Great Plains and Mountain West. Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, the Dakotas—all could have large Amish communities. Mormons would still dominate Utah and Idaho but spread into neighboring states. Colorado might have both groups in significant numbers.

Of course, a lot can change in 75 years. The Amish need cheap farmland. Can they keep finding it? Many already work in shops and construction instead of farms. Will that change how many young people stay? For Mormons, one study says they probably won’t hit 31.3 million by 2050 (The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints is growing at a faster rate than the world population). Utah might already be less than half Mormon—some estimates say 42%. Remember, back in 1983 someone predicted 267 million Mormons by 2080. That’s clearly not happening.

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