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Africa is experiencing a gargantuan transformation. The East African Rift System (EARS) is gradually splitting the continent into two distinct landmasses: the Nubian Plate to the west and the Somali Plate to the east. The movement is occurring at a rate of approximately 6–7 mm per annum, forming a rift over 3,000 kilometers long from the Afar Triangle in Ethiopia to Mozambique.
In the Afar Triangle, the Earth’s crust is thinning, and magma from the mantle is causing the land to bulge and crack. Notably, in 2005, a 60-kilometer-long fissure appeared in just a few days, signaling the dynamic nature of this region’s geology.
At the same time, the Red Sea is spreading at approximately 10 mm per year, since the Arabian Plate is drifting away from Africa. In millions of years, this widening will open up the rift to seawater, forming a new ocean that will potentially split East Africa, making the Horn of Africa an island.
The map below, created by Reddit user u/TheAssConsumer, based on current tectonic data, shows projected Africa 10 million years in the future.
A new ocean forming will have huge effects on the climate. Oceans play a vital role in controlling climate by sequestering heat and redistributing moisture through atmospheric circulation.
As the rift valley floods, regions like Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania will probably see more humidity and rainfall variability. The new ocean may also strengthen monsoon systems, bringing more frequent and possibly heavier rains to currently semi-arid areas. However, this additional moisture would also feed more frequent and powerful storms, which would make agriculture and infrastructure difficult.
What About the Rest of Africa?
The rest of the continent will be impacted by this tectonic activity, even though East Africa is its epicenter.
The Tell-Rif orogenic system in North Africa may be impacted by the shifting tectonic plates, which could lead to an increase in seismic activity in areas such as Algeria, Tunisia, and Morocco.
As the rift widens, mass redistribution may cause isostatic adjustments in the Congo Basin further south. River systems may be impacted, and the ecology of the area may change, as a result of either uplift or subsidence in the basin.
Moreover, the formation of new drainage networks is likely as the topography evolves. Rift valleys often become pathways for rivers and lakes, and East Africa could see the development of new freshwater systems, possibly even spawning lakes akin to the current Great Lakes.
Another issue is volcanic activity. Volcanic activity is already increased in areas close to the rift, such as the area surrounding Mount Nyiragongo in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Known for its swift lava flows, Nyiragongo has erupted several times recently, endangering the lives of those living nearby.
Imagining a New Africa
Let’s now speculate about how these geological shifts might alter the economic terrain of Africa.
Inland cities like Addis Ababa, Kampala, and Nairobi would become coastal hubs if a new ocean were created. These cities might develop into important ports, which would ease trade and strengthen regional economies.
New shipping lanes would open, potentially shifting global shipping routes and trading patterns. Quick-responsive nations’ adaptation might allow them to reap new shipping, fishing, and tourism benefits.
However, all these developments bring along challenges too. Infrastructure would need to be redesigned, and geopolitical tension might arise because of new seas and control boundaries of resources. Smart governance and multilateralism will be the key to be able to deal with this new economic order.
