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The probability of a rain forecast is one of the least understood elements of the weather forecast. Even a week in advance, it’s difficult to tell if it will rain on a particular day.
Independence Day is a much-loved holiday for many Americans, so it would be great to at least somewhat predict whether it will rain on that day.
We now have many years of weather and climate data at our disposal. If we analyze this data, we can say with a certain probability whether it will rain in any locality in the United States on Independence Day.
The map below shows the historic probability of there being at least a tenth of an inch of rain on July 4 based on observations from 1981 to 2010.
Rain chances are 10% or less for a large area from inland Washington to northwest New Mexico.
The highest chance of rain on the 4th of July for any U.S. state is in Hawaii (50%), followed by southern Florida (40-50%), North Carolina, West Virginia, and the Northeastern border with Canada (30-40%).
