How is climate will change in the U.S. (2030 – 2100)?

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Since 1901, the average temperature across the contiguous U.S. states has grown at an average rate of 0.16°F (0.09°С) per decade. Average temperatures have grown more rapidly since the late 1970s (0.31 to 0.54°F or 0.17°С to 0.3°С per decade since 1979). Eight of the top ten hottest years on record for the contiguous U.S. states have happened since 1998, and 2012 and 2016 were the 2 warmest years on record. Over the following few decades (2021–2050), yearly average temperatures are supposed to grow by around 2.5°F (1.39°С) for the U.S., related to the recent past (average from 1976 – 2005), under all probable future climate scenarios.

While globally, 2016 was the hottest year on record, 2020 was the second-hottest, and 2011 to 2020 was the warmest decade since thermometer-based measurements started. The worldwide average temperature has grown at an average rate of 0.17°F (0.09°С) per decade since 190, comparable to the speed of warming within the contiguous U.S. states. After the late 1970s, though, the U.S. has warmed quicker than the worldwide rate.

Some regions of the U.S. have endured more warming than others. The North, the West, and Alaska have observed temperatures rise the most. Below is a bunch of Below are maps showing how climate will change in the United States according to Koppen-Geiger climate classification.

U.S. Koppen-Geiger climate classification (2000 – 2100)

CSIRO-Mk3.0

The CSIRO Mk3 climate system model contains a comprehensive representation of the four major components of the climate system (oceans, land surface, atmosphere, and sea-ice), and in its current form is as comprehensive as any of the global coupled models available worldwide developed by the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research.

The primary aim in developing the CSIRO Mk3 climate model has been to provide a coupled atmosphere-ocean system that gives a significantly improved representation of the current climate relative to the prior model generations. The CSIRO Mk3 model will be used to investigate the dynamical and physical processes controlling the climate system for multiseasonal predictions and investigations of natural climatic variability and climatic change.

A1 scenario family

The A1 scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, a global population that peaks in mid-century and declines after that, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building, and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. The A1 scenario family develops into three groups that describe alternative directions of technological change in the energy system. The three A1 groups are distinguished by their technical emphasis: fossil intensive (A1FI), non-fossil energy sources (A1T), or a balance across all sources (A1B).

A2 scenario family

The A2 scenario family describes a very heterogeneous world. The underlying theme is self-reliance and the preservation of local identities. Fertility patterns across regions converge very slowly, which results in a continuously increasing population. Economic development is primarily regionally oriented, and per capita, economic growth, and technological change are more fragmented and slower than other storylines.

MIROC-H

The Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), the coupled general circulation model used in the K-1 project, consists of five component models: atmosphere, land, river, sea ice, and ocean developed by the Japanese Center for Climate Research.

The atmospheric component interacts with the land and sea-ice components. The air-sea exchange is realized exclusively between the atmosphere and sea-ice components, not directly between the atmosphere and ocean components. The ocean component interacts only with the sea ice component. The air-sea flux at ice-free grids is consequently passed to the ocean component without modification, but it is first passed to the sea ice component. The river component receives ground runoff water from the land component and drains riverine runoff water into the sea ice component. The sea ice and ocean components deal with lakes.

A1B scenario

A2 scenario

Projected Climate Change Impacts

Northeast: Settlements are affected by heatwaves, more severe precipitation events, and coastal flooding due to sea-level rising and storm waves.

Southeast and Caribbean: Reduced water availability, exacerbated by population increase and land-use change, induces grown competition for water. There are enlarged hazards associated with extreme events such as hurricanes.

Midwest: Longer growing seasons and increasing carbon dioxide levels rise yields of some crops, although these advantages have already been offset in some cases by the occurrence of severe events such as heatwaves, floods, and droughts.

Great Plains: Increasing temperatures lead to the growing need for water and energy and influence agricultural traditions.

Southwest: Drought and raised warming foster wildfires and the intensified struggle for limited water resources for ecosystems and people.

Northwest: Shifts in the timing of streamflow linked to earlier snowmelt decrease the water supply in summer, creating far-reaching environmental and socioeconomic consequences.

Alaska: Fast receding sea ice in summer, disappearing glaciers, and permafrost cause destruction to infrastructure and significant alterations to ecosystems. 

Hawai’i and Pacific Islands: More restrained freshwater supplies linked with raised temperatures stresses ecosystems and people and decrease food and water safety.

Coasts: Coastal lifelines, such as water supply infrastructure and evacuation routes, are more defenseless to higher sea levels and storm waves, inland flooding, and other climate-related changes.