What Would Have Happened If Northern Ireland Voted on Irish Unity in 2016?

Back in 2016, just a few months after Britain voted to leave the European Union, many people wondered what Northern Ireland might do if faced with its own referendum on Irish unity. The Brexit vote had already turned everything upside down, and suddenly questions about borders, identity, and political allegiances felt more urgent than ever.

That’s exactly what Reddit user bezzleford explored when he took polling data from that period and turned it into a detailed map showing how different parts of Northern Ireland felt about potentially joining the Republic of Ireland. The timing makes it particularly interesting – this was when everything still felt uncertain and people were trying to figure out what leaving the EU might actually mean.

The data came from an Ipsos MORI poll conducted for BBC Northern Ireland in August and September 2016. The numbers themselves weren’t too shocking if you know Northern Ireland. About 63% said they’d vote to stay in the UK, 22% would go for Irish unity, and the rest were undecided or wouldn’t vote. Pretty much what you’d expect, right?

But here’s where it gets interesting – when you break it down by area, you start seeing patterns that make total sense once you think about them.

Look at the western counties and the areas right along the border with the Republic. These places showed much higher support for Irish unity. Then check out the eastern parts, especially around Belfast – much stronger support for staying with the UK.

This isn’t random. If you live in Derry or somewhere in County Fermanagh, you probably cross into Donegal all the time. Maybe you shop there, maybe you have family there, maybe that’s just where you go for a night out. The border isn’t this big dividing line – it’s just something you drive across.

But if you’re in Belfast or somewhere like Ballymena, your life is probably much more connected to the rest of the UK. Your job might depend on trade with Britain, your family might have moved back and forth between Northern Ireland and Scotland or England over the generations.

Things Have Changed Since 2016

What’s really got me curious is how much these attitudes have shifted since then. Brexit actually happened, we’ve had all the drama with the Northern Ireland Protocol, and a whole generation of people who were too young to vote in 2016 are now adults.

Some recent polling suggests the gap has narrowed quite a bit. In the 2023 local elections, parties favoring Irish unity got 43.8% of first-preference votes compared to 39.9% for unionist parties – the first time nationalist parties outpolled unionists in local elections.

The age thing is particularly interesting. Younger people are way more likely to be open to Irish unity than older voters. And I get it – if you’re 25 now, you barely remember the Troubles, but you definitely remember Brexit messing things up. Your reference points are completely different from someone who’s 65.

What Do People in the South Think?

This is something that doesn’t get talked about enough. Everyone focuses on Northern Ireland, but what about the Republic? According to polling data tracked on Wikipedia, most people there do support the idea of a united Ireland, usually around two-thirds in polls. But when you dig deeper, there are real concerns about what that would actually mean.

The Republic would basically have to take on all of Northern Ireland’s public spending, which is way higher than what they’re used to. The health service, education system, even things like how local councils work – it’s all different. Not to mention the politics of suddenly having a million people who identify as British joining your country.

Could We Actually See a Vote?

The Good Friday Agreement says there should be a border poll if it looks like a majority would support Irish unity. But who decides when that threshold is met? The UK Secretary of State, basically. And there’s no clear formula for it.

Right now, polling shows more people support having a referendum (47%) than oppose it (37%), but that’s not the same as supporting unity itself. Lots of people think there should be a democratic vote even if they’d personally vote to stay in the UK.

The politicians are all over the place on this. Sinn Féin wants a vote within the next few years. The DUP says there’s no evidence anyone wants it. The UK government basically says “not yet” without being more specific.