The Historical Probability of White Christmas
This post may contain affiliate links. As an Amazon Associate, we earn from qualifying purchases.
There’s something magical about waking up on Christmas morning to find the world transformed by a blanket of snow. While this scene might seem like a holiday card fantasy for some, it’s an annual reality for others – but where exactly can you expect to find this winter wonderland?
A white Christmas officially occurs when there’s enough snow on the ground to cover the landscape on December 25th. This natural phenomenon is most common in northern regions of the Northern Hemisphere, where winter temperatures regularly dip below freezing.
Below is a fascinating world map created by Reddit user Daaaaaaaavidmit8a, showing which countries’ capitals were most likely to experience a white Christmas.

As we look ahead to future holiday seasons, the unpredictable nature of our changing climate keeps us guessing – perhaps those darker blue regions might still surprise us with unexpected December snow.
White Christmas Chances Across North America
Canada leads the pack when it comes to white Christmas probability. Most of the country can confidently expect snow, with a few exceptions: the coast and interior southern plains of British Columbia, southern Alberta, southern Ontario, and parts of Atlantic Canada typically see greener holidays.
In the United States, your best bets for finding Christmas snow are in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest. The mountainous regions and northern states also frequently experience that picture-perfect holiday scene.

Percent chance of a white Christmas in Europe
Europe’s winter landscape varies dramatically by region. The northeastern countries have become reliable destinations for those dreaming of a white Christmas. You’re most likely to find snow-covered ground during the holiday season in:
- Northeastern Poland
- Russia
- Ukraine
- Belarus
- Finland
- Estonia
- Latvia
- Lithuania
- Norway
- Sweden

Whether you’re planning a holiday trip or just curious about winter weather patterns, these probability maps offer fascinating insights into where you might find that perfect snowy Christmas scene.