Europe’s Population in 2100: Two Possible Futures

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By 2100, Europe’s population could look drastically different depending on immigration policies. A recent study sourced from Eurostat and the UK’s Office of National Statistics via The Guardian, and visualized by Geo Universe, presents two contrasting futures: one where Europe ceases immigration altogether and another where it maintains current immigration trends. The results highlight the critical role migration plays in shaping Europe’s demographic future.

The table below presents the projected populations of various European countries under both scenarios, alongside their current populations.

Country	Current Population	Population in 2100 with No Immigration	Population in 2100 with Current Immigration Levels
European Union - 27 countries (from 2020)	453,168,040	294,909,040	419,461,737
Euro area – 20 countries (from 2023)	351,746,735	223,892,896	331,160,059
Belgium	11,829,411	8,457,767	12,556,067
Bulgaria	6,860,349	4,262,643	5,072,147
Czechia	11,017,341	8,171,765	10,645,693
Denmark	5,979,924	4,747,209	6,126,086
Germany	85,207,514	53,047,168	84,117,337
Estonia	1,377,519	994,410	1,289,504
Ireland	5,257,383	4,442,815	5,871,387
Greece	10,320,364	5,764,356	7,282,525
Spain	48,614,060	24,270,667	45,121,447
France	68,658,223	59,390,584	68,042,806
Croatia	3,810,628	2,279,209	2,822,689
Italy	58,951,070	28,240,345	50,194,524
Cyprus	941,765	636,130	1,007,739
Latvia	1,863,089	1,246,021	1,165,838
Lithuania	2,860,472	1,762,310	1,775,674
Luxembourg	687,081	450,773	997,267
Hungary	9,644,847	6,611,713	9,054,057
Malta	553,623	278,105	759,097
Netherlands	18,048,588	12,742,981	18,310,405
Austria	9,111,243	5,576,475	9,576,626
Poland	38,381,332	24,074,659	29,516,003
Portugal	10,372,141	5,732,123	8,981,056
Romania	18,831,698	14,332,575	14,609,506
Slovenia	2,120,770	1,371,730	1,950,820
Slovakia	5,521,368	3,764,276	4,552,382
Finland	5,640,423	3,444,651	4,784,869
Sweden	10,705,814	8,815,580	13,278,186
Iceland	402,007	348,469	624,532
Norway	5,508,635	3,906,602	6,731,629
Switzerland	8,923,538	5,737,246	10,104,311
UK	68,000,000	48,000,000	86,000,000

Currently, immigrants make up roughly 10% of the European population, amounting to over 45 million people. If current immigration trends continue, this number will surpass 100 million by 2100, meaning immigrants could represent over 20% of Europe’s total population. This shift would help offset declining birth rates and aging populations.

Which Countries Rely Most on Immigration?

In absolute numbers, Germany, the UK, and France currently have the largest foreign-born populations in Europe. According to Eurostat, Germany hosts over 17 million immigrants, followed by the UK with 10 million, and France with almost 9 million.

When looking at the highest percentage of foreign-born residents, countries like Luxembourg (51.0%), Malta (30.8%), Cyprus (26.9%), Ireland (22.6%), Austria (22.1%), Sweden (20.6%), Germany (20.2%) stand out as having large immigrant populations relative to their total population size. Conversely, countries like Poland (2.6%), Romania (3.1%), Bulgaria (3.3%), and Slovakia (3.9%) have some of the lowest shares of immigrants.

Why Do Some Countries Have More Immigrants Than Others?

Several factors influence immigration levels across Europe:

• Economic Opportunities: Countries with strong economies, such as Germany, the UK, and France, attract large numbers of migrants seeking job opportunities.
• Historical Ties: Former colonial powers like the UK, France, and the Netherlands tend to have higher immigrant populations due to established migration routes.
• Government Policies: Nations with pro-immigration policies, such as Sweden and Canada (outside Europe but relevant), see higher migrant inflows compared to more restrictive countries like Hungary or Poland.
• Geographic Location: Southern European countries like Italy and Spain often serve as entry points for migration from Africa and the Middle East, affecting immigration patterns.

Attitudes Toward Immigration Across Europe

Public opinion on immigration varies widely across Europe. Surveys indicate that countries like Sweden, Norway, and Iceland are among the most welcoming, with a majority of citizens viewing immigration positively. Meanwhile, skepticism is highest in Greece, Hungary, and Slovakia, where economic concerns and cultural identity debates play a significant role in shaping public attitudes.

Will Europe Follow the No-Immigration Scenario?

Many European countries have birth rates below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. Nations like Italy and Spain have some of the lowest fertility rates, with Italy at 1.24 and Spain at 1.16 live births per woman in 2022, contributing to overall population decline.

Low birth rates lead to workforce shortages, pension funding challenges, and economic stagnation. Countries that implement policies to support families—such as parental leave, affordable childcare, and financial incentives—could help mitigate these issues while balancing demographics through immigration.

Would Europe be better off with or without immigration? Share your thoughts in the comments below!