It may sound like an outdated idea, but in the United States, where you grow up still matters a lot. From education to employment, the opportunities available in your neighborhood can shape your future in ways that last a lifetime.
A new wave of research from Harvard economist Raj Chetty and the Opportunity Insights team shows that the American Dream—the idea that anyone can climb the economic ladder through hard work—isn’t equally available to all. Your ZIP code might just be more powerful than your DNA when it comes to predicting life outcomes!!!
Let’s explore how geography affects economic mobility in America—and whether that’s beginning to change.
The Geography of Opportunity
In the U.S., economic mobility varies dramatically by location. A child from a low-income family in one county might have a strong chance of reaching the middle class, while a similar child just across the state line might not.
This finding comes from the Opportunity Atlas, which uses anonymized tax data to track income outcomes for millions of children. It shows that the chances of upward mobility are not only unequal between states but also between neighborhoods just a few miles apart.
In Salt Lake City, Utah, children from low-income families have a 10.8% chance of rising to the top fifth of income earners. In Charlotte, North Carolina? Only 4.4%. (Chetty et al., 2014)
Why the difference? A combination of factors: school quality, income inequality, family stability, crime rates, and levels of social capital (community trust, church groups, or local mentorship). In other words, success isn’t just about personal talent or action—it’s about the environment that facilitates (or stifles) it.
Mapping Mobility in America
To witness these disparities, examine the map of the United States below. It shows economic mobility by county across the nation. Dark green colors indicate a greater opportunity, while dark red colors signify less opportunity.
This impressive U.S. map visualization was created by CityLab. Even though CityLab.com is gone, the map continues to be relevant.
While lower mobility is concentrated in the Southeast, especially in regions with long histories of racial and economic segregation, higher mobility tends to be concentrated in the Upper Midwest, Great Plains, and portions of the West. But it should be noted that this map shows far from everything. For example, even within the same city, differences between neighborhoods can be impressive and persistent, sometimes varying dramatically just across a highway or school district boundary.
Is the Playing Field Finally Starting to Level?
There’s hope that geography may matter less in the future, but we’re not there yet.
The COVID-19 pandemic fast-tracked remote work and online learning, offering a glimpse of what life could look like when physical location doesn’t define access to jobs or education. A teenager in rural Mississippi can now learn to code through free online courses or even intern remotely for a Silicon Valley startup. In theory, the internet could flatten opportunity, letting talent shine regardless of ZIP code.
But the digital playing field is still not even. Most of low-income and rural America is still unconnected from high-speed broadband. Even in places where there is internet access, literacy and limited professional networks are a genuine roadblock.
Yes—but it will take intentional policy, local innovation, and sustained effort.
Scholars and communities are already experimenting with what to do to increase upward mobility:
Affordable housing initiatives that allow families to move to more opportunity-rich neighborhoods (see: Moving to Opportunity study)
High-quality early childhood education in low-resourced neighborhoods
Mentorship and college access programs that lead to professional opportunities
Comprehensive place-based initiatives like the Harlem Children’s Zone, which wrap kids in support from cradle to career
National policies to close income disparities, enhance public health, and offer access to work can support local initiatives.
So… Does the American Dream Still Live?
Yes—in most places—but not all, and not for all.
Geography shouldn’t determine destiny. But in America today, it still plays the lead role. The good news? Maps are not etched in stone. With the right equipment, we can redraw them.
