The Population of Manhattan Mapped
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Manhattan is geographically the smallest and most densely populated of the 5 boroughs of New York City.
In 2020, 1,694,251 people were living in Manhattan. The population density of this borough was about 72,918 people per square mile (28,154/km²). It is the highest population density of any county in the U.S. But this is not a record in the history of Manhattan. In 1910, at the height of European migration to New York and when the subway just built, Manhattan’s population peaked at 2.3 million people, and the population density reached 101,548 people per square mile (39,208/km²).
As time has passed and transportation options have developed, people no longer needed to reside within walking distance of work. That means more and more people began to inhabit the outer boroughs or suburbs outside of New York City proper.
Although houses in Manhattan are much taller than they were in 1910, people live in larger spaces than they used to, and a lot of the tallest buildings are commercial office towers, not residences. Having one person lives in a 42-square-meter (450 sq ft) studio seems super cramped today, but that would have been outright luxurious to a person living in Manhattan in 1910.
Nowadays, Manhattan’s population is not constant; it varies greatly depending on the time of day. Justin Fung made vivid visualization of the changing of the population of Manhattan, hour-by-hour.
The visualization you see here is a model of the dynamic population of Manhattan, block-by-block and hour-by-hour for a typical week in late Spring. The population estimates result from a combination of U.S. Census data and a geographic dispersion of calculated net inflows and outflows from subway stations, normalized to match population daytime and nighttime estimates provided by a study from NYU Wagner.
Though the U.S. Census Bureau estimates that 1.6 million people live in Manhattan, a study by NYU Wagner defers to the adage in providing an actual overnight population of about 2 million people. The additional 25% represents an ever-present mix of workers and visitors. Subway activity suggests that this lower bound is likely approached overnight on Sunday around 2 a.m., just before the workweek begins. This “trough” of the population is visualized here.
At the other extreme, we have Manhattan at its fullest, liveliest hour- occurring sometime after lunch (about 2 p.m.) on Wednesdays. The NYU Wagner study provides an upper bound of about 4 million people, consistent with a 2x increase compared to the overnight population. The peak population level tapers on either side of Wednesday, with Fridays exhibiting the lowest peak population levels of the workweek. Manhattan is seen here at its highest estimated population peak.
Although Manhattan’s population as full swings considerably throughout the workweek, the Island can be split into uptown and downtown simply by separating neighborhoods that are daytime importers from communities that are daytime exporters. Collectively, the Island north of Central Park behaves much like the outer boroughs in that it is a daytime exporter, with an estimated decrease in population of about 20%. Conversely, the Island below Central Park is a daytime importer, increasing its total population by over 3x against overnight estimates.
Shown here are all neighborhoods north of 59th Street. At “peak Manhattan population” (Wednesdays around 2 p.m.), this region holds an estimated 1.25 million people. It constitutes over half of the land area of Manhattan (about 12 square miles, not including Central Park). The density of about 100,000 persons per square mile (~40,000 persons per square kilometer) at this time is on par with that of the densest residential areas of Paris (11th arrondissement) and Taipei (Yonghe District).
Shown below are all districts south of 59th Street. At peak Manhattan population, this region contains over twice as many people as its uptown counterpart (about 2.7 million people) in less than half the total land area of Manhattan (9.5 square miles). The estimated density of about 280,000 persons per square mile (110,000 persons per square kilometer) is over two and a half times denser than northern Manhattan neighborhoods and it is on par with the densest regions of Mumbai (Zaveri Bazar) and Macau (St. Anthony Parish). This routinely makes downtown Manhattan one of the densest places on Earth.
Among all downtown neighborhoods, the two with the most significant impact on the workday net population increase are colloquially known as the Financial District (“FiDi”) and Midtown. Shown here at peak Manhattan population are Community Boards 1 and 5, encompassing the rough boundaries of FiDi and the traditional “Midtown,” respectively. At their peaks, FiDi and Midtown increase their daytime populations by factors of about 4x (+250,000 people) and 10x (+680,000 people), respectively.
The significant multiplicative increases in the daytime versus the overnight populations for FiDi and Midtown result from the low residential counts for both of these neighborhoods. Shown below are Community Districts 1 and 5 at their lowest estimated populations. While Midtown and FiDi may collectively host nearly a million people every workday, these neighborhoods are home to less than 80,000 residents.
While Manhattan may never sleep, it does take a break on the weekends. Saturday sees a fraction of the workweek’s peak population (about 2.6 million people) peak at about 2 p.m., while Sunday sees even fewer people (about 2.5 million) rise at about 3 p.m. The minimum overnight populations for Friday and Saturday (prime nightlife hours) are slightly elevated over those of the workweek. Shown here is the peak Saturday population.
There are few exceptions to the prevailing uptown/downtown migration pattern. The largest exception is the neighborhood of Morningside Heights on the south side of West Harlem. Morningside Heights is both geographically and demographically dominated by Columbia University, including its Morningside campus, its various real estate holdings, and its nearly 40,000 students.
During peak Manhattan population hours when uptown is exporting its residents, Morningside Heights is estimated to increase its population by about 10,000 people. The increase in population immediately surrounding the Columbia University area during the afternoon stands in contrast to the decreases seen in the northern half of the West Harlem district on a Monday afternoon below.
At the other end of Manhattan, where the prevailing daytime population dynamic is the mass importation of workers, the Lower East Side (“LES”) stands out as exhibiting a neutral dynamic, suggesting that people leave and enter the neighborhood simultaneously rate. Nearly all the land area in LES is zoned residential. Seen here is Community District 3, encompassing LES, in addition to Alphabet City, Chinatown, and the outskirts of SoHo, just before the start of a workday.
In the middle of a workday, shown below, the western reaches of Community District 3 exhibit daytime importation while the population of LES in the east remains more-or-less constant. The western zone of Community District 3 contains commercially-zoned portions of Chinatown and SoHo.
