Economists have a horrible track record. Look at what they expected in the eighties, in 1987. Thirty years later, everyone thought the USSR would still be one of the larger economies globally. Most of the Russian economic decline started in the 1990’s. I remember reading an old book from the 1980’s, that predicted that Japan would surpass the US in GDP. No one expected the Japanese slowdown in the 1990’s. Back then, economists would have thought that West Germany (!) would be as wealthy as the US, on a per capita basis. In the 1970’s and 1980’s, West Germany grew faster than the US. Post-unification, average German economic growth slowed, and the US boomed in the 1990’s. Economists thought that China and India would be wealthier, but no one predicted the significantly higher GDP growth in China, compared to India.
Long-term economic growth is tied to political changes, more than anything else, and no one can predict those with accuracy. China, India, the United States, we can’t even say with high confidence that those countries will exist in 2050.
Chaplin
7 years ago
This is interesting but it assumes that prior to most Colonial expansion that SA was not inhabited at all, despite evidence to the contrary
Economists have a horrible track record. Look at what they expected in the eighties, in 1987. Thirty years later, everyone thought the USSR would still be one of the larger economies globally. Most of the Russian economic decline started in the 1990’s. I remember reading an old book from the 1980’s, that predicted that Japan would surpass the US in GDP. No one expected the Japanese slowdown in the 1990’s. Back then, economists would have thought that West Germany (!) would be as wealthy as the US, on a per capita basis. In the 1970’s and 1980’s, West Germany grew faster than the US. Post-unification, average German economic growth slowed, and the US boomed in the 1990’s. Economists thought that China and India would be wealthier, but no one predicted the significantly higher GDP growth in China, compared to India.
Long-term economic growth is tied to political changes, more than anything else, and no one can predict those with accuracy. China, India, the United States, we can’t even say with high confidence that those countries will exist in 2050.
This is interesting but it assumes that prior to most Colonial expansion that SA was not inhabited at all, despite evidence to the contrary