I stumbled across two maps last week that I can’t get out of my head. As someone who spends way too much time analyzing geographic data, I’ve seen plenty of maps that tell interesting stories. But these two? They show something that honestly keeps me awake at night.
Reddit user ermentedcorn put together this provincial breakdown of South Korea’s 2023 fertility rates using Statistics Korea data. Look at those numbers. The highest-performing province barely hits 1.0 children per woman. Most are sitting somewhere around 0.7 or 0.8.
Then Haremonious zoomed in even further with municipal data from the same source. Gwanak-gu in Seoul: 0.39 children per woman. That’s not a typo. Meanwhile, rural Yeonggwang-gun manages 1.65—still way below what you need to keep a population stable, but it feels almost optimistic compared to Seoul.
South Korea’s national rate hit 0.72 last year. Down from 0.78 the year before. For context, you need about 2.1 just to break even. They’re operating at roughly one-third of replacement level.
Let’s do some quick math here. At 0.7, South Korea will cut its population in half every 50 years. Then half again. Then half again. We’re not talking about gradual change—this is population freefall.
By 2044, projections show South Korea with about 48.7 million people and a median age of 56. Try running a modern economy when most of your population is closer to retirement than to starting their careers.
The maps also tell us something important about where this is happening. Seoul’s fertility rate was 0.55 last year—the lowest in the country. Cities seem to be fertility killers. Expensive housing, long commutes, tiny apartments, work-life balance that doesn’t exist. All the things that make urban life challenging also make having kids feel impossible.
Here’s the thing though: South Korea isn’t some unique case study. They’re just ahead of the curve.
Everyone’s Heading This Direction
Japan logged 727,277 births last year—their eighth straight record low. Their fertility rate is sitting at 1.20. Western Europe as a whole is projected to drop from 1.53 to 1.44 by 2050, then down to 1.37 by 2100. Even the US, which used to be more demographically stable, is seeing consistent declines.
The global average has fallen to 2.3 births per woman! Still above replacement, but the trend line is pretty clear. OECD countries have seen fertility rates drop by half over the past 60 years, and the pace isn’t slowing down.
Jennifer Sciubba’s TED talk nails this perfectly. She compares our current situation to looking at stars—what we see now isn’t the real picture. The demographic shifts have already happened; we’re just seeing the delayed effects. Global population might still be growing, but that’s just momentum from previous generations. The underlying engine has already shifted into reverse.
Countries like China could lose 800 million people by 2100. South Korea might shrink by 63%. These aren’t distant possibilities—they’re mathematical certainties if current trends continue.
Why This is Happening Everywhere
The causes are frustratingly consistent across different countries and cultures. People are getting married later, if at all. Women are pursuing education and careers, which naturally delays childbearing. Housing costs in major cities have gone through the roof. Childcare is expensive and often hard to find. The whole structure of modern life seems designed to make family formation as difficult as possible.
Japan offers a perfect example. Later marriages, fewer marriages overall, women stuck with most housework even when they work full-time, and lots of women in unstable employment situations. Sound familiar? These same patterns show up in country after country.
Social attitudes have shifted too. Having kids used to be something most people just did. Now it’s seen as a choice—and often a choice that doesn’t make financial sense. When a decent apartment costs half your income and childcare costs the other half, having kids becomes a luxury many people can’t afford.
Governments Are Trying, But Nothing’s Working
South Korea has thrown everything at this problem. They’re aiming to get their fertility rate up to 1.0 by 2030, which would still be a disaster, just a slightly smaller one. Despite spending billions on pro-natalist policies over the past 20 years, the numbers keep getting worse.
The fundamental issue is that all the financial incentives in the world can’t fix the underlying structural problems. You can offer generous parental leave, subsidize daycare, give tax breaks for families. But if housing is unaffordable, work culture is toxic, and daily life is stressful, people still won’t choose to have kids.
The demographic transition we’re watching unfold goes way beyond just numbers on a spreadsheet. Our economic systems, pension plans, healthcare—everything assumes either population growth or at least stability. When that assumption breaks down, the whole system starts to wobble.
But governments keep trying the same approaches that haven’t worked anywhere else. More money, more programs, more incentives. Meanwhile, the structural issues that actually drive people’s decisions remain unchanged.
