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It’s easy to forget that, not so long ago, Greece and Turkey weren’t so far apart in population size. But fast forward a century, and the difference is staggering: in 2024, Turkey’s population is more than eight times larger than Greece’s.
A map below shows this transformation using data snapshots from 1927, 1960, 2000, and 2024. It visualizes not only raw numbers, but also the growing demographic gap between the two countries over time.
Let’s look beyond the numbers and explore why this change happened—and what it says about the countries’ divergent demographic paths.
Greece vs. Turkey, Population Over Time
Here’s a simple breakdown of population figures over four key years:
1920s–1940s: The Aftershock of the Population Exchange
Both countries started the modern era with major demographic shifts caused by the 1923 population exchange under the Treaty of Lausanne. About 1.2 million Greeks from Asia Minor were relocated to Greece, while around 400,000 Muslims were moved from Greece to Turkey.
This created sudden, uneven population growth in Greece, straining housing, infrastructure, and food supplies, but also expanding the Greek workforce by roughly 25%. Turkey, meanwhile, consolidated a more religiously homogeneous population as it transitioned into a secular republic.
1950s–1970s: Opposite Growth Paths
After World War II, both countries entered periods of growth—but at very different speeds.
Turkey had high fertility (over 6 children per woman in the 1950s), combined with high rural birth rates and improvements in healthcare. Its population more than doubled between 1950 and 1980.
Greece, while growing, also experienced large-scale emigration during the same decades. Hundreds of thousands of Greeks moved to West Germany, the U.S., Canada, and Australia seeking economic opportunity.
So while Turkey grew naturally, Greece’s net growth was dampened by out-migration.
1980s–2000: Turkey Urbanizes, Greece Shrinks
Both countries began experiencing the effects of the demographic transition, but again—on different schedules.
Turkey began to urbanize rapidly, and fertility fell from 4.5 in 1980 to around 2.5 by 2000.
Greece, already more urban and economically developed, saw fertility fall even faster—from around 2.2 in 1980 to just 1.3 by 2000, among the lowest in Europe.
By 2000, Turkey’s population had surged past 67 million, while Greece hovered just under 11 million.
21st Century: Two Different Demographic Futures
Today, the gap continues to widen—but for new reasons.
Greece in 2024
Population: ~10.5 million
Annual growth rate: –0.4%
Fertility rate: 1.3 (far below replacement level)
Median age: ~45
Immigration: Modest, mainly Albanians, Eastern Europeans, and more recently Middle Eastern refugees
Greece is aging fast. A low fertility rate, combined with decades of outward migration, has led to population stagnation and now decline.
Turkey in 2024
Population: ~86 million
Growth rate: +0.7% annually
Fertility rate: ~2.0 (near replacement level)
Median age: ~34
Immigration: Significant; around 3.6 million Syrian refugees live in Turkey today (UNHCR)
While Turkey is also aging, it’s doing so more slowly, and with a younger, more urbanized population overall. Immigration has played a bigger role there, particularly since 2011 with the Syrian civil war.
21st Century: Different Demographic Trends
While Greece and Turkey share geography and history, their demographic trends in the 21st century are still proceeding in fairly different directions.
Greece has entered a phase of demographic decline. Birth rates are continuously below 1.4 children per woman and the population is aging at an increasing rate (median age ~45). Natural population growth became negative. Emigration, especially in and after the 2009 debt crisis, helped to further amplify this decrease. Immigration has slowed the decline somewhat but not enough that it stopped the steady reduction of the population.
On the other hand, Turkey’s population continues to grow, albeit at a slower rate than before. With fertility near the replacement level (~2.0), significantly younger median age (~34), and widespread urbanization, the country remains demographically vibrant. Large-scale immigration—especially from its bordering neighbor Syria—also plays a huge role in defining the population today.
Net emigration (especially post-2008 crisis), some recent immigration
Historically a source of emigrants, now a destination country (notably ~4 million Syrian refugees)
Historical Population (1927)
~6.2 million
~13.6 million
Population Today (2024)
~10.3 million
~86.1 million
A hundred years ago, Turkey’s population was just twice that of Greece. Today, it’s more than eight times larger. That dramatic shift isn’t just about birth rates—it reflects deeper differences in migration, development, religion, culture, and social choices.
What do you think drives these kinds of demographic changes most? Let me know in the comments.
